South Africa sending 586 Nigerians back and my guys are still packing bags

So I wake up this morning, check my phone, and see South Africa says it's repatriating 586 Nigerians for irregular immigration. My first thought was not about the politics, it was about the guys I know who are still planning to japa to SA next month. Bruh.

I have a friend who spent his entire savings on a ticket to Joburg last year. He was there for three months before they sent him back. Now he is in Lagos selling phone accessories in Computer Village. The numbers say the probability of making it in SA without proper papers is getting worse every year. But people still go.

I ran the calculation mentally. At current rates, the cost of a proper visa application plus documentation is around ₦350,000 if you do it right. That is less than what people lose when they get deported. But nobody wants to hear this when their cousin in SA sent a video of a nice apartment in Sandton. The data suggests the dream is real for maybe 10% of people. The other 90% are just funding someone else's lifestyle.