Tinubu's Osun dilemma: Will he truly back APC or is Adeleke his real man?

Yesterday, Premium Times reported on the growing confusion in Osun State ahead of Saturday's governorship election. The question on everyone's lips is simple: where does President Bola Tinubu actually stand? His ancestral home is Iragbiji, the hometown of his cousin and ally, former Governor Gboyega Oyetola. The APC has nominated Bola Oyebamiji to reclaim the state. Yet Governor Ademola Adeleke, running under the Accord Party, has been pictured on campaign billboards with the President, and he has never denied seeking Tinubu's favour.

This is not just another off-cycle election. It is a test of Tinubu's authority within his own party. The EFCC froze Osun State's accounts last week, and Adeleke publicly appealed to the President, saying, "I have endorsed you. That should be enough. Stop the bloodshed in Osun State and call your brother, Oyetola, to order." In a surprising twist, Tinubu personally signed a statement directing the EFCC to vacate the freezing order. That is not the move of a man who wants his opponent crushed. Political analyst Olaniyi Oyekanmi put it well: "Adeleke is not just dancing; he is organising. He connects emotionally with people, and that is something APC has failed to match."

I have watched Nigerian politics for decades, and this is classic Tinubu. He keeps his cards close, plays both sides, and only reveals his hand when it benefits him. But here is the uncomfortable truth: if Adeleke wins again, Tinubu's authority within the APC is finished. If Oyebamiji wins, Adeleke's people will cry federal might. Either way, Osun's real voters are caught in the middle. The question is not whether Tinubu can deliver his ancestral home to his party. The question is whether he even wants to. Be honest, do you trust any of these men to put Osun's people first on Saturday?