Adeleke leading by 67,335 votes with 5 LGAs left, can APC still turn this around?

Governor Ademola Adeleke of the Accord Party is currently leading the Osun State governorship election by 67,335 votes after results from 25 out of 30 local government areas were announced by INEC at the state collation centre in Osogbo in the early hours of Sunday. The governor polled 431,760 votes while his closest challenger, the APC candidate Bola Oyebamiji, secured 364,425 votes.

What is striking is the pattern of the results. Adeleke has won 18 of the 25 LGAs announced so far, with commanding margins in Osogbo, Ede North, Ede South, Iwo, Ife East and Ife North. In Ede North alone, he got 35,427 votes against Oyebamiji's 10,283. But Oyebamiji has not been a pushover, winning Irewole with 29,972 votes to Adeleke's 10,934, and also taking Boripe, Ilesha East, Obokun, Irepodun, Atakunmosa West, Ifedayo and Odo-Otin.

With five LGAs still outstanding, mathematically Oyebamiji would need a massive swing to close a gap of over 67,000 votes. The ADC candidate Najeem Salaam is a distant third with 10,574 votes. This is looking like a comfortable path to re-election for Adeleke, unless the outstanding areas are overwhelmingly APC strongholds. Do you think the remaining results can change the outcome, or is this effectively settled?